US Seeks Partnership in Europe 6th Generation Fighter Program A Deep Dive
The US is making a surprising move, seeking to join the UK, Italy, and Japan’s collaborative Global Combat Air Programme GCAP a next-generation fighter aircraft initiative. This shift comes as several countries are reconsidering or canceling orders for the US-made F-35 fighter jet, raising concerns for the American defense industry.
The F-35 Order Crisis Shifting Alliances
Traditionally, the US has profited from selling its military hardware, including the F-35, at premium prices. However, this strategy is facing headwinds. As stated in the transcript, countries like Canada are reviewing the F-35 deal, with their Prime Minister suggesting a likely cancellation. Portugal is explicitly leaning towards European alternatives like the Gripen, Eurofighter Typhoon, or Rafale, explicitly stating they won’t procure the F-35. Even Germany is voicing doubts about the deal.
This erosion of F-35 orders is a core driver of the US appeal to join GCAP. Consider this: if the US can’t reliably sell its next-gen tech, its defense industrial complex suffers. A quote from a senior US representative, Paolo Jam Poli, highlights this urgency he directly requested Italy include the US in the program during a recent visit.
GCAP: A Solidifying European-Asian Project
Launched in 2022, GCAP aims to develop a sixth-generation combat aircraft intended to remain cutting-edge through 2070. It is a multi-billion dollar project involving BAE Systems UK, Leonardo Italy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Japan. Recent progress at the G20 summit in Rio, with reaffirmation from the leaders of Italy, the UK, and Japan, reinforces GCAP momentum.
Why the US is Suddenly Interested 3 Key Factors:
- US NGAD Stagnation: The US initially launched its own Next Generation Air Dominance NGAD program, intended to produce multiple aircraft for its Air Force, Navy, and Army. However, the program has hit roadblocks. As of June 2024, the Air Force halted its portion, and the Navy delayed theirs citing escalating costs of over 5.1 billion spent in the last three years with limited progress. In contrast, GCAP is moving forward effectively.
- Erosion of Export Potential: As noted earlier, diminishing F-35 orders are a significant threat. If the US develops a sixth-generation aircraft but lacks buyers, it undermines the entire business model.
- China’s Advancement: The unveiling of the China J-36 a purported sixth-generation fighter jet with a tailless design dramatically shifted the balance of power. The US views this development as a major threat and a catalyst for accelerating its own advancements and the urgency to join GCAP.
Indias Potential Role
Interestingly, just last December, Italy and the UK extended an invitation to India to join the GCAP program. The UK even offered technology transfer and export licenses, actively encouraging India’s participation. This offer echoes a similar invitation made in 2022 by then-UK PM Boris Johnson. However, India has yet to respond, and its position remains unclear.
What’s Next
Europe’s response to the US request is currently unknown. Existing tensions and fractures in the US-Europe relationship may complicate matters.
G-CAP: America Joins the European 6th Generation Fighter Jet Program
A surprising shift is underway in the world of fighter jet development: the United States is now seeking to partner with the UK, Italy, and Japan on their joint 6th-generation fighter aircraft program, known as G-CAP. This comes as several nations are reconsidering or outright canceling orders for the American F-35 fighter jet, raising concerns for the US defense industry.
The F-35s Declining Popularity: Several countries, including Canada and Portugal, are reviewing or opting out of F-35 deals, expressing interest in European alternatives like the Gripen, Eurofighter Typhoon, and Rafale. Even Germany is questioning its planned F-35 purchases. This trend is fueled by a shift in strategy and perhaps, comments made by Donald Trump regarding pricing. As a key analyst pointed out, diminishing buyer interest in the F-35 is a major driver behind the US’s sudden interest in G-CAP.
What is G-CAP Launched in 2022, G-CAP officially the Global Combat Air Programme envisions a next-generation combat aircraft capable of remaining effective through 2070 essentially eliminating the need for further new aircraft development for decades. The program is a multi-billion dollar initiative spearheaded by the UK BAE Systems, Italy Leonardo, and Japan Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. The project received renewed endorsement at the 2024 G20 summit, with the leaders of Italy, the UK, and Japan agreeing to accelerate its progress.
Why the US Shift The US interest in joining G-CAP stems from three primary factors:
- NGAD Program Stalls: The US initiated its 6th-generation fighter program, the Next Generation Air Dominance NGAD, intending to develop multiple aircraft for the Air Force, Navy, and Army. However, both the Air Force and Navy have faced considerable delays and rising costs. As of June 2024, over 5.1 billion had been spent, yet the program remained stalled a stark contrast to G-CAPs steady progress.
- Maintaining Export Dominance: Historically, the US strategy has been to develop fighter jets at lower costs for domestic use, but then export them at higher prices. With key buyers questioning the F-35, the US risks losing this lucrative market and damaging its defense industrial complex.
- China Advancement: Most crucially, the unveiling of China’s J-36, a purported 6th-generation fighter reportedly tailless and highly advanced, in the past year has dramatically altered the balance of power. This development has put immense pressure on the US to accelerate its advancements, leading it to seek collaboration with Europe.
India’s Potential Role: Interestingly, Italy and the UK invited India in December 2024 to join the G-CAP program. The UK even offered India technology transfers and export licenses, urging them to participate. This isn’t the first attempt a similar offer was made in 2022 during a visit by then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to India. However, India has yet to respond.
What’s Next Whether Europe will accept the US into the G-CAP program remains uncertain. Existing tensions within the US-Europe relationship may complicate matters, but the US’s sudden willingness to collaborate represents a significant development in the future of global air power.
The US Pivot to GCAP: A Summary
In a surprising turn of events, the United States is seeking to join the Global Combat Air Programme GCAP, the sixth-generation fighter aircraft program spearheaded by the UK, Italy, and Japan. This shift comes as several nations are reconsidering or outright canceling orders for the American F-35 fighter jet, and with growing concern over China’s advancements in military aviation.
The F-35s Declining Appeal: The core driver of this US strategy change is waning global demand for the F-35. Countries like Canada, Portugal, and even Germany are signaling a preference for European alternatives the Gripen, Eurofighter Typhoon, or Frances Rafale. Canada’s Prime Minister recently stated they would review the F-35 deal, likely opting out. Portugal explicitly stated a preference for European aircraft. This threatens the profitability of the US defense industry, particularly its build cheap, sell expensive model that has worked with the F-35.
The Rise of GCAP US Program Troubles: While F-35 orders falter, the GCAP program is gaining momentum. Launched in 2022, GCAP aims to create a next-generation combat aircraft for beyond 2070. The project involves Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, the UK’s BAE Systems, and Italy’s Leonardo. It received renewed endorsement at the 2024 G20 summit, signifying solid progress.
Meanwhile, the US’s own Next Generation Air Dominance NGAD program is facing hurdles. The Air Force halted its component in June 2024, and the Navy delayed its portion, both due to escalating costs – over 5.1 billion spent with minimal forward progress. This further incentivizes the US to partner with the seemingly faster-moving GCAP.
China Influence Strategic Balance: A third, crucial factor is the emergence of China’s sixth-generation fighter, the J-36. Its unveiling shifted the balance of power, prompting considerable concern in the US. America’s stalled NGAD program, coupled with China’s advancement, added urgency to find a viable path forward.
India’s Role Future Prospects: Notably, both Italy and the UK extended an invitation to India last year to join the GCAP program, offering technology transfer and export licenses. This invitation, initially made in December 2024 and previously proposed in 2022 by then-UK PM Boris Johnson, shows a willingness to broaden the partnership. However, India has yet to respond.
The US seeking GCAP partnership is a significant development. While Europe has not publicly responded, pre-existing tensions may complicate the move. Only time will tell whether the US will enter the GCAP program, and if so, on what terms.
F-35 Program in Crisis: US Seeks Partnership in European 6th-Gen Fighter Project
The global outlook for the F-35 fighter jet program is rapidly deteriorating, prompting the US to surprisingly seek inclusion in the UK, Italy, and Japan’s collaborative 6th-generation fighter aircraft program known as the GCAP project. This shift comes as multiple countries are reconsidering or outright canceling planned F-35 purchases, jeopardizing the program’s future revenue and impacting the US defense industry.
The situation unfolded recently with a senior US representative, Paolo PJ Camponi Special Representative for Global Strategic Partnerships, directly requesting Italy to include the US in the GCAP program during a visit with Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini. This move is driven by three core issues: program stagnation domestically, declining international demand for the F-35, and the emergence of China’s advanced J-36 fighter jet.
Domestic Roadblocks: The US initiated its own Next Generation Air Dominance NGAD program aiming for multiple 6th-generation aircraft designs for the Air Force, Navy, and Army. However, the program has stalled. As of June 2024, the Air Force halted its NGAD development while the Navy delayed the program, both citing escalating costs. Over the past three years, approximately 5.1 billion has been spent with minimal tangible progress stark contrast to the steady development of the GCAP project.
F-35 Demand Dries Up: Historically, the US has profited by selling advanced military technology at a premium. The F-35 was a key example of this strategy. However, several nations are now pivoting towards European alternatives. Portugal explicitly stated its preference for European-built aircraft like the Gripen, Eurofighter Typhoon, or Rafale, rejecting the F-35. Canada has announced a review of its F-35 deal, with cancellation appearing likely. Germany is also questioning its commitment to the purchase. This shrinking demand poses a significant threat to the US defense industrial complex.
China’s Rising Threat: The unveiling of China’s J-36 a purported 6th-generation fighter jet with a tailless design has further exacerbated the situation, shifting the balance of power. This development has increased pressure on the US to accelerate its own advancements in fighter technology and is a key reason for its overture to the GCAP program.
The GCAP Project: Launched in 2022, the GCAP project aims to create a next-generation combat aircraft intended to remain relevant until 2070, eliminating the need for further development. The collaboration involves the UK’s BAE Systems, Italy’s Leonardo, and Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. The project received a significant boost of confidence at the recent G20 summit, with the leaders of the three nations reaffirming their commitment to its expedited development.
India’s Potential Role: Notably, both Italy and the UK extended invitations to India in December 2024 to join the GCAP project, offering technology transfer and export licenses. Similar invitations were extended in 2022 by then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson during a visit to India. India has yet to respond, but the possibility remains open.
The future remains uncertain. Europe has yet to publicly respond to the US request, complicated by existing tensions between the two regions. The outcome will significantly impact the global landscape of advanced fighter aircraft development, balancing geopolitical strategy, industrial interests, and technological advancements.
China 6th Gen Fighter Drives US to Seek European Partnership
Recent developments have seen a surprising shift in strategy as the US is now actively requesting to join the UK, Italy, and Japan’s Global Combat Air Programme GCAP a next-generation fighter aircraft initiative. This move isn’t driven by altruism but by a growing crisis in the US fighter jet market and the emergence of China’s advanced aircraft program.
The F-35 is Losing Ground. The core issue stems from declining international orders for the American F-35 fighter jet. Canada is reviewing the deal, with the Prime Minister suggesting a cancellation. Portugal is leaning towards European alternatives like the Gripen, Eurofighter Typhoon, or Rafale, explicitly rejecting the F-35. Even Germany is questioning its commitment to the F-35 deal. This trend threatens the lucrative export market that underpins the US defense industry. As one analyst points out, a loss of buyers translates directly to a hit for the US defense industrial complex.
GCAP is Gaining Momentum. GCAP, launched in 2022, aims to create a 6th-generation combat aircraft intended to remain state-of-the-art through 2070. The program is a multi-billion dollar collaboration between the UK BAE Systems, Italy Leonardo, and Japan Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. The program received a strong endorsement at the recent G20 summit in Rio, with leaders from all three countries committing to accelerate its progress.
The USs NGAD Program Stalled. The US initiated its own Next Generation Air Dominance NGAD program, intending to develop multiple advanced aircraft for its Air Force, Navy, and Army. However, the program is facing serious setbacks. As of June 2024, the Air Force and Navy have already invested 5.1 billion but face significant delays and escalating costs. In contrast to GCAPs steady progress, the NGAD program is struggling.
A Strategic Shift: Export Profits Chinas Advance. Traditionally, the US defense strategy has been to develop aircraft at a lower cost for domestic use and then sell them internationally at a profit a strategy successfully employed with the F-35. With potential buyers now opting for European alternatives, this model is collapsing.
However, a primary catalyst for the US approach to Europe is the unveiling of China’s J-36, a purported 6th-generation fighter aircraft, last year. The introduction of this aircraft immediately shifted the balance of power and triggered concern within the US Department of Defense. With their own program lagging, the US is scrambling to catch up, recognizing the strategic implications of China’s advancement.
Indias Invitation. Interestingly, Italy and the UK invited India in December 2024 to join the GCAP program. The UK even offered technology transfer and export licenses. This invitation echoes a previous overture in 2022 by then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. India has yet to respond to these offers.
The situation remains fluid. Whether Europe will welcome the US into the GCAP program is still uncertain, given existing tensions. But the US’s willingness to seek partnership demonstrates the seriousness of the challenges it faces a faltering domestic program, waning F-35 sales, and the growing power of China in the aerospace arena.
Indias Invitation to the GCAP Program: A Shift in Global Power Dynamics
Recent developments signal a surprising turn as the United States is now seeking partnership in the Global Combat Air Programme GCAP, a sixth-generation fighter aircraft initiative led by the UK, Italy, and Japan. This shift comes amidst dwindling international orders for the US-made F-35 fighter jet and rising concerns over China’s advancements in aviation technology.
The F-35s Declining Popularity: Several nations are reconsidering or outright canceling their F-35 orders. Canada’s Prime Minister recently announced a review of the F-35 deal, leaning towards European alternatives like the Eurofighter Typhoon, Gripen, or Rafale. Portugal has similarly expressed interest in European aircraft, and even Germany is questioning its F-35 procurement. This loss of potential buyers threatens the US defense industry. As one analyst pointed out If today America runs a program in which, let’s say, they even build a sixth-generation aircraft, in that case, they won’t find buyers and therefore, the US defense industrial complex will suffer.
GCAP: A Rising Alternative: Launched in 2022, GCAP aims to develop a next-generation combat aircraft capable of maintaining air superiority through 2070. The project involves major companies: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries of Japan, BAE Systems of the UK, and Leonardo of Italy. The program gained significant momentum after being endorsed at the 2024 G20 summit in Rio, with leaders from the UK, Italy, and Japan committing to expedite its progress.
Why the US Change of Heart Three primary factors are driving America’s newfound interest.
- NGAD Program Stalled: The US initiated its own Next Generation Air Dominance NGAD program, envisioning multiple advanced aircraft for its Air Force, Navy, and Army. However, the program hit roadblocks due to escalating costs. As of June 2024, the Air Force and Navy had spent 5.1 billion, with limited tangible results. In comparison, GCAP is progressing at a very good, solid pace.
- Export Strategy at Risk: The US historically benefits from selling advanced weaponry at higher prices to international partners. The declining appeal of the F-35 jeopardizes this strategy.
- China Challenge: China’s unveiling of its J-36 sixth-generation fighter aircraft boasting a tailless design has altered the balance of power. This development has put immense pressure on the US to accelerate its advancement in fighter technology.
India’s Role A Past Invitation: Intriguingly, Italy and the UK extended an invitation to India in December 2024, specifically requesting its participation in the GCAP program. The UK offered technology transfer and export licenses, urging India to join the project. This wasn’t the first attempt; former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson issued a similar invitation during a visit to India in 2022. While India hasn’t yet responded, this offer highlights its potential strategic importance to the GCAP initiative.
What Next While the United States has made its request, Europe’s response remains uncertain, given existing tensions in the US-Europe relationship. Whether Europe accepts the US partnership remains to be seen.
US Defense Industry Global Competition: A Summary
The US is making a surprising move to seek partnerships with the UK, Italy, and Japan’s Global Combat Air Programme GCAP, a next-generation fighter aircraft initiative. This shift comes as multiple countries are reassessing or outright canceling orders for the US-made F-35 fighter jet, threatening the lucrative export market the US has enjoyed.
The Core Problem: F-35 Orders Drying Up
The impetus for this outreach stems from dwindling international demand for the F-35. Canada’s Prime Minister has publicly started a review of their F-35 deal, leaning towards potentially not procuring the aircraft. Portugal explicitly indicated a preference for European alternatives like the Gripen, Eurofighter Typhoon, or Rafale, and even Germany is questioning its commitment to the F-35 program. This trend jeopardizes the US defense industry’s revenue stream. As analysts highlight, the US historically profits by developing aircraft cheaply for domestic use, then exporting them at a premium – a strategy now under threat.
GCAP: A Rising Competitor
Launched in 2022, GCAP, spearheaded by the UK, Italy, and Japan, aims to create a sixth-generation combat aircraft expected to be operational by 2070. The project involves major companies Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Japan, BAE Systems UK, and Leonardo Italy and has gained momentum. Notably, at the recent G20 summit, the leaders of these three nations reaffirmed their commitment to accelerating the program development.
Why the Shift Three Key Drivers?
- Stalled US Next-Generation Air Dominance NGAD Program: The US initiated its sixth-generation fighter program NGAD intending to develop multiple aircraft platforms for its Air Force, Navy, and Army. However, the program has encountered significant challenges. As of June 2024, the Air Force and Navy had already invested 5.1 billion, but progress had stalled. In contrast, GCAP appears to be progressing steadily.
- Erosion of the F-35s Export Advantage: Historically, the US profit model depended on high-value exports. Former President Trump’s approach cast doubt over this model, leading potential buyers to explore European alternatives. The cancellations and reviews of F-35 orders are a direct consequence.
- The China Factor: The unveiling of China’s J-36, a purported sixth-generation fighter jet reportedly tailless and highly advanced, has shifted the balance of power and alarmed the US. The emergence of a credible competitor has accelerated the need for the US to secure its position in the future of air combat.
India’s Role in European Response
Interestingly, both Italy and the UK extended invitations to India in December 2024 to join the GCAP program, offering technology transfer and export licenses. This isn’t a new effort Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a similar pitch during a 2022 visit. India has yet to respond.
The US request for inclusion in GCAP has been met with silence from Europe so far. However, existing tensions in the US-European relationship suggest a potentially complex response.
The current geopolitical landscape is rapidly evolving, and the future of global air power hinges on the choices made by these key players.
G-CAP Program: US Seeks Partnership Amidst Shifting Global Dynamics
Recent developments reveal a surprising turn the US is now requesting to join the UK, Italy, and Japan Global Combat Air Programme GCAP, a next-generation fighter aircraft initiative. This shift comes as several nations are reconsidering or canceling orders for the American F-35 fighter jet, raising concerns for US defense contractors.
The F-35s Declining Appeal: Countries like Canada, Portugal, and even Germany are signaling a preference for European aircraft the Gripen, Eurofighter Typhoon, or Rafale over the F-35. Canada’s Prime Minister has publicly stated a review of the F-35 deal, while Portugal indicates a strong lean toward European alternatives. This trend directly impacts US revenue and dominance in the fighter jet market. As an analyst points out, dwindling orders translate to a hit for the US defense industry complex.
GCAP: A Rising Alternative: Launched in 2022, GCAP aims to develop a 6th-generation combat aircraft intended to be so advanced it will negate the need for further aircraft development until 2070. The program is a multi-billion dollar effort spearheaded by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Japan, BAE Systems UK, and Leonardo Italy. Endorsement at the 2024 G20 summit by the leaders of Italy, the UK, and Japan reinforced the program’s momentum.
Why the US Change of Heart Primarily, the US is reacting to challenges with its own Next Generation Air Dominance NGAD program. Initially, the US envisioned multiple aircraft for its Air Force, Navy, and Army. However, the Air Force halted the program in June 2024, followed by the Navy delaying its portion, citing rapidly increasing costs. Over the past three years, 5.1 billion has been invested in NGAD with limited progress, contrasting sharply with GCAPs steady advancement.
Secondly, the US historically leverages its fighter jet programs by offering them at favorable prices domestically while exporting them at higher margins. With potential buyers opting out of F-35 purchases, the US risks losing this revenue stream. Donald Trump’s rhetoric further fuels this concern, as nations seek independent defense capabilities.
Finally, and critically, the emergence of China’s J-36 a claimed 6th-generation fighter jet unveiled last year has shifted the global power balance. This development has heightened US concerns and spurred a need for collaboration to maintain a technological edge. The J-36s rumored tailless design and perceived advancement necessitate a unified response.
India’s Role Future Outlook: Interestingly, in December 2024, both Italy and the UK extended an invitation to India to join the GCAP program, offering technology transfer and export licenses. This offer mirrors a similar invitation made in 2022 by then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. India has yet to respond.
The question now is how Europe will respond to the US request, given existing tensions and fractures in the US-Europe relationship. The future of GCAP and global air dominance remains to be seen.
