Background Context
The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), a prominent separatist group, has escalated its activities, with notable incidents like the hijacking of the Jaffar Express train on March 11, 2025, in the Quetta-Sibi region. This attack resulted in civilian and military casualties
Baloch activists, such as Mahrang Baloch and Naela Quadri (Prime Minister of the Balochistan government-in-exile), have voiced appeals for India to raise the Balochistan issue internationally, including at the United Nations. These calls have been amplified amid widespread protests in Balochistan, organized by groups like the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC), highlighting the region’s plight.
What Will India Do Now?
India’s response to these appeals is likely to be shaped by a combination of strategic, diplomatic, and geopolitical considerations. While no official statement has been made as of today regarding direct intervention, here are the potential courses of action India might take based on current dynamics and historical precedent:
- Diplomatic Support Without Direct Involvement:
India has historically maintained a cautious stance on Balochistan, occasionally raising the issue to counter Pakistan’s narrative on Kashmir. For instance, Prime Minister Narendra Modi referenced Balochistan in his 2016 Independence Day speech, signaling solidarity with the Baloch people. India could continue this approach by amplifying Baloch human rights concerns on international platforms like the UN, as requested by activists, without committing to material support. This would align with India’s official position of rejecting Pakistan’s accusations while subtly pressuring Islamabad. - Strategic Leverage Against Pakistan:
The unrest in Balochistan offers India a strategic opportunity to divert Pakistan’s military focus from the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir to its western borders. By subtly encouraging Baloch nationalism—through rhetoric or indirect means—India could weaken Pakistan internally and disrupt CPEC, a project it views as a geopolitical challenge due to its passage through disputed territory in Gilgit-Baltistan. However, India is unlikely to provide overt military or financial aid, as this could escalate tensions and invite international backlash. - Maintaining Denial and Non-Interference:
India’s Ministry of External Affairs has consistently denied any involvement in Balochistan, as seen in its response to Pakistan’s claims post the Jaffar Express incident. Given the lack of geographical contiguity with Balochistan and the risks of escalating bilateral tensions, India may opt for a hands-off approach, focusing instead on its own security concerns along the border with Pakistan. This aligns with India’s broader foreign policy of avoiding entanglement in internal conflicts of neighboring countries unless directly provoked. - Monitoring Regional Implications:
The situation in Balochistan has broader regional ramifications, particularly with Iran and Afghanistan also sharing Baloch populations. India, which has invested in Iran’s Chabahar Port as a counter to Gwadar (a key CPEC hub), will closely watch how unrest in Balochistan affects its regional interests. Any escalation could strain Pakistan’s relations with Iran—already tense after cross-border strikes in 2024—potentially benefiting India’s strategic positioning in West Asia.
Current Sentiment and Constraints
Public sentiment, as reflected in posts on X and media reports, shows Baloch activists expressing gratitude for India’s past solidarity and urging stronger action. However, India faces constraints: direct intervention risks validating Pakistan’s accusations, straining ties with other nations, and complicating its image as a responsible global power. Moreover, the Baloch movement lacks widespread international support, limiting India’s ability to rally a coalition.
Likely Outcome
As of now, India is most likely to continue its current strategy: condemning Pakistan’s human rights record in Balochistan rhetorically while avoiding tangible support to separatists. This approach allows India to maintain a moral high ground, counter Pakistan’s Kashmir narrative, and keep diplomatic flexibility intact. Any shift toward more active involvement would depend on significant provocations from Pakistan or a dramatic escalation in Balochistan that alters the regional balance.
