By Bharat Global Time – Global Economy Desk
June 11, 2025 | New Delhi / Beijing
China’s Economic Engine Stalls
The once unstoppable Chinese economy is now struggling on multiple fronts. As per the latest data, exports have declined for the fifth consecutive quarter, signalling deep structural fatigue in the world’s second-largest economy. Compounding this is rampant deflation—consumer prices are falling, factories are underproducing, and the once-mighty real estate sector is still crumbling post-Evergrande.
In short, China’s growth story is faltering, and it’s no longer just a phase—it’s a potential turning point in global economic leadership.
Key Red Flags from China’s Economy
- Exports Down by 12.4% YoY: Major hits in electronics, machinery, and textiles.
- Real Estate Still Bleeding: Over $1 trillion in unfinished projects, banks under pressure.
- Factory Output Shrinking: Low global demand, power shortages, and internal overcapacity.
- Consumer Confidence at Record Low: With deflation, Chinese citizens are saving more and spending less, stalling the domestic economy.
Even China’s famed manufacturing hubs like Shenzhen and Guangzhou are seeing layoffs and idle production lines, reminiscent of a slowdown that has ripple effects worldwide.
🇮🇳 India: The Beneficiary of China’s Crisis?
As China stumbles, India quietly rises.
“This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for India to position itself as the world’s next factory floor and investment destination,”
says Prof. Arvind Subramanian, former Chief Economic Adviser.
Here’s why India is perfectly placed:
- Stable Political Climate with a strong reform agenda
- Demographic Dividend: Young, skilled and tech-savvy workforce
- PLI Schemes: Government incentives in electronics, semiconductors, EVs, textiles
- Improving Infrastructure: Highways, ports, and new industrial corridors
- Geopolitical Trust: Western nations increasingly wary of China, looking to “China+1” models
Global Companies Shifting Towards India
Multinationals like Apple, Samsung, Tesla, and Intel are either expanding their manufacturing bases in India or seriously evaluating entry. The Indian government’s Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes have already attracted over $25 billion in committed investments across sectors.
Moreover, countries like the U.S., Japan, and EU members are forming bilateral supply chain partnerships with India—marking the start of a strategic economic realignment.
India’s Export Surge & Forex Boost
India’s merchandise exports crossed $475 billion last year and are projected to touch $500 billion+ in 2025, driven by pharma, chemicals, electronics, and automotive components. Simultaneously, India’s forex reserves remain strong, and the rupee is relatively stable compared to the yuan, which has seen wild fluctuations.
“Unlike China, India is growing with inflation under control and consumer confidence intact. This is not an accident—it’s strategy.”
— Nirmala Sitharaman, Finance Minister
But Challenges Remain
India must act fast and boldly to convert this opening into long-term dominance. Key hurdles include:
- Labour Law Reform
- Ease of Doing Business at the State Level
- Digitising MSMEs for global exports
- Power & Energy Supply Chain Resilience
Conclusion: The Dragon Slips, The Elephant Moves
China’s slowdown isn’t just an East Asian crisis—it’s a global shift in economic power. And India, with its dynamic policy approach and untapped potential, stands on the cusp of economic transformation. The question now is not “Can India replace China?” but rather “How quickly can India seize this opening before it closes?”
