Bharat Global Time | June 12, 2025
The Middle East is on the brink of catastrophe as full-scale military conflict breaks out between Israel and Iran — two of the region’s most powerful and ideologically opposed nations. In a dramatic move, the United States has begun evacuating diplomatic staff and military contractors from key Middle Eastern locations including Iraq, Jordan, and the UAE.
As the world braces for a larger regional spillover, India faces a critical foreign policy dilemma: Should it stay neutral, pick a side, or play peacemaker?
Escalation Timeline: How Did We Get Here?
The tensions reached a breaking point after Iran-backed militias fired long-range missiles into Israeli territory, triggering a swift and massive retaliation by the Israeli Air Force. Key Iranian military sites in Syria and Lebanon have already been bombed.
With Hezbollah joining the fight from Lebanon and Houthi attacks ramping up in the Red Sea, the situation has morphed into a regional war. The United States, while trying to avoid direct military involvement, has begun pulling its personnel as a precautionary step — a move that signals the seriousness of the threat.
India’s Predicament: Oil, Trade, Diaspora at Risk
India has deep economic and diaspora interests in the region:
- Over 9 million Indian nationals live and work in Gulf countries.
- Nearly 60% of India’s crude oil comes from the Middle East.
- Bilateral trade with both Iran and Israel is strategically significant.
Any prolonged conflict threatens to cripple energy supplies, spike fuel prices, and endanger millions of Indian workers.
So, What Should Be India’s Foreign Policy Response?
1. Strategic Neutrality with Quiet Diplomacy
India should maintain neutrality in public statements — much like its stance on the Ukraine war — while quietly engaging with both camps behind the scenes. A public alignment with either Israel or Iran could jeopardize ties with Arab states or trigger domestic political backlash.
2. Evacuation Preparedness
The Ministry of External Affairs must activate contingency plans under Operation Ganga-style evacuation readiness, especially for Indian workers in Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE — potential flashpoints if the war expands.
3. Energy Diversification
This conflict proves once again that India’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil is a national vulnerability. Immediate diversification efforts with Russia, Venezuela, and Africa must be prioritized.
4. Backchannel Peace Efforts
India, respected by both Israel and Iran to varying degrees, can offer Track II diplomacy — acting as a neutral ground for future negotiations. This would elevate India’s global diplomatic stature.
5. Defend the Diaspora First
While geopolitics is important, India’s first duty is to protect its citizens abroad. A high-level diplomatic task force must be created to monitor Indian citizens’ safety across the region.
Strategic Experts Speak
Former Indian diplomat Kanwal Sibal said:
“India’s smartest move is to stay equidistant — neither condemning nor condoning. The priority must be citizen safety, energy security, and readiness for market shockwaves.”
Defense analyst Abhijit Iyer-Mitra added:
“Israel will expect moral support. Iran will expect silence. India must give neither — and focus on national interest.”
What’s at Stake for India?
- Oil prices already surged 11% within hours of the conflict.
- Remittances from the Gulf — $87 billion last year — may be disrupted.
- Trade corridors like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) could be shelved indefinitely.
